MSFT Intraday Options: Bull Anchor Fails, Compression Lingers
MSFT rode a bull MIDAS-to-Kijun setup through BBW compression and Z3 cape, but the near put wall and positive gamma capped upside, turning a near-win (+$0.58 MFE) into a close loss (-$0.27).
OPP E1
KYROCALL entered at 1:55pm at $371.16 and exited at 3:55pm at $370.89. Optimal exit at 3:15pm (+$0.58 MFE). Actual close: -$0.27 (-7.0F). MAE was -$1.13. Duration: 2h. Profit-per-hour: -$0.14/hr — theta risk: low efficiency for duration held.
COMMANDERBull MIDAS anchor at 1:10pm. 9 bars before entry. anchored in the below IB low. bear MIDAS overhead. 5 knights.
VOLATILITYYellow bishop appeared at 2:15 pm (4 bars after entry) (BBW compression) — no expansion yet. Bands are narrowing.
KINGDOMKijun crossed above at 2:55 pm, 12 bars after E1. Peak MFE: 23F. Kijun ended at -56F (price above).
PROFILEE1 fired in the below IB low. Price is still in the below IB low. At entry: POC (-60.0F) was above entry, VPOC (-60.0F) was above entry. Selling tail 2 TPOs (40F–60F). Price is below it — rejection holding.
GEXCall wall $375.00 ($2.71 away), put wall $372.50 ($0.21 away). positive gamma — dealers dampen moves.
Z3Z3 bullish cape activated at 2:50 pm, 11 bars after E1. 6 favorable bars, 7 total cape bars during the trade.
OPTION FLOWAt E1: Put dominant (crossed put at 01:15 PM). Put held dominant through exit.
DMIDMI compressed within 7 bars of entry (3 compression bars). DI+ won at 2:20 pm, 5 bars after entry.
◆ MASTER READ
If you bought E1, you lost $0.27 on the close, from 1:55pm to 3:55pm, over 2 hours; it did offer more, with an optimal exit at 3:15pm for +$0.58.
It had a window of profit but gave back a lot of it, with MAE at -$1.13, so the trade had to survive real heat before the close.
The main backing was the bull MIDAS anchor with 5 knights, then the Kijun cross up at 2:55pm and Z3 cape at 2:50pm; the main threats were the put wall just $0.21 away and positive gamma keeping a lid on the move, while the time held made this a theta-expensive trade.